United They Stand, Divided They Fall: INDIA Alliance’s Litmus Test in Delhi

United They Stand, Divided They Fall: INDIA Alliance’s Litmus Test in Delhi

As India's political landscape braces for the Delhi Assembly elections, the future of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) hangs in a delicate balance, emblematic of broader challenges to the nation's democratic ethos. Formed to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party's commanding grip on national politics, the INDIA alliance is currently mired in internal discord, strategic missteps, and a lack of unified vision, which could have profound implications not just for electoral outcomes but for the very idea of India as a secular, pluralistic democracy.

 

The INDIA alliance, comprising parties like the Congress, the AAP, the TMC, the SP, and the Shiv Sena (UBT), was heralded as a beacon of hope for those advocating for a diverse, inclusive India. The BJP’s consolidation of power has coincided with an erosion of these values, with the normalisation of communal divisions, the centralisation of authority, and the weakening of democratic institutions as signs of a deeper malaise afflicting Indian democracy. While it was envisioned as a bulwark against these trends, the INDIA alliance's unity is visibly fracturing, particularly evident in the Delhi elections where the Congress's reluctance to fully back AAP showcases a prioritisation of local rivalries over national objectives. Parties like the TMC and the SP, which do not have direct stakes in Delhi, have extended their support to AAP as part of a calculated effort to consolidate anti-BJP votes. This discord is not merely tactical; it symbolizes the deeper challenges of aligning diverse regional interests under a single banner to counter the BJP's monolithic narrative centred around Narendra Modi's leadership.  Moreover, Congress's leadership has been criticized for lacking strategic vision and organisational cohesion. Internal factionalism, combined with the absence of a clear, charismatic leader, has left the party struggling to assert itself as the anchor of the INDIA alliance. This has led to perceptions of the coalition as a disjointed group of regional parties rather than a credible national alternative to the BJP juggernaut.

 

The BJP's Dominance and Strategic Foresight

What enables the BJP's confidence in long-term dominance, as articulated by leaders like Amit Shah, is not just institutional manipulation but a nuanced understanding of political strategy. The BJP has effectively reshaped India's political discourse through relentless narrative control; ironically, using every critique from the opposition as an opportunity to further its own agenda. The party's ability to anticipate, absorb, and re-purpose opposition narratives (as seen with the appropriation of the Constitution protection narrative) showcases a political agility that the INDIA alliance currently lacks. It has used polarisation tactics and micro-targeted campaigns to create divisions among opposition supporters. By co-opting narratives and appropriating key issues, the BJP has managed to stay ahead of its rivals. While, by projecting every election as a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, they have managed to draw focus on the opposition’s inability to present a united and stable alternative, thereby reinforcing the Modi-versus-who narrative - a psychological framing that the BJP has exploited with remarkable success. Their strategy extends beyond mere electoral victories; it's about redefining what it means to be Indian, often sidelining the multicultural, secular fabric in favour of a more homogeneous cultural narrative. This strategy has been bolstered by their long-term planning, including not just strategically managing opposition through both confrontation and co-optation, but potentially even gerrymandering through constituency delimitation - this is evident from the re-districting and changes made to the number of assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir following the abrogation of Article 370 and reorganisation of the region. The Delimitation Commission increased the number of assembly seats in the Jammu region (which has a Hindu-majority population) and reduced them in the Kashmir Valley (which has a Muslim-majority population).   

 

The Opposition's Reactive Stance

 

The INDIA alliance has been largely reactive without a coherent, long-term strategy to challenge the BJP's vision. Despite occasional successes like the Congress's campaign on protecting the Constitution during the 2024 elections, the opposition struggles to present a vision that resonates nationally. While valid, the INDIA alliance's criticism of BJP's policies often lacks the depth or breadth to form an alternative social vision that could genuinely contest the BJP's layered approach to different state dynamics. For them to remain relevant, they have several pressing concerns that need to be addressed:

 

·       The alliance must transcend local rivalries; the Delhi scenario is a stark reminder that without unity, the fight against BJP's centralisation becomes futile, and therefore internal reconciliation is key.  

·       The opposition needs to go beyond reactive politics. They must articulate a vision for India that not just questions but also constructs, offering policies on employment, social justice, and communal harmony that appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.

·       Learning from the BJP's playbook, they must anticipate political moves rather than merely responding to them. This includes understanding the micro-dynamics of caste, religion, and regionalism that the BJP so adeptly navigates.

·       The BJP's success is partly due to its robust organizational structure. The INDIA alliance needs to bolster its grassroots presence and leverage technology and data as effectively as its adversary.

 

The trajectory of the INDIA alliance is more than just a political contest; it's a battle for India's soul. The BJP's dominance risks entrenching a majoritarian governance model, potentially eroding the secular, democratic values enshrined in the Constitution. The opposition's failure to unite and offer a viable alternative could lead to a further normalisation of communal division, weakening the democratic institutions that have historically upheld India's pluralistic identity.

 

The Delhi elections serve as a crucial test for the INDIA alliance. A failure to present a united front might not only result in an electoral loss but could also signify a deeper capitulation to a singular national narrative over the diverse, inclusive one that has defined India. As the nation stands at this crossroads, the opposition’s capacity to regroup, strategize, and inspire with a new vision for India will determine whether the country can reaffirm its commitment to democracy, diversity, and secularism or drift further towards a centralised, majoritarian state. The future of the INDIA alliance, thus, is inexorably linked to the future of India itself, where the stakes are nothing less than the preservation of its democratic fabric.